‘Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.’ Mike Tyson
Gone are the days when leaders could make a plan for the next 12 months and be pretty sure that they’d stick to it. Covid 19 put paid to that. We’ve all taken a Tysonesque punch in the face. And in these uncertain times having one long term strategy feels arrogant and inflexible. So, when no one really knows what’s going to happen next, how do you plan for the unplanned?
When there are so many possibilities for what might happen next, doesn’t having a bunch of possible strategies ready to deploy make a lot of sense? Building agility into your planning will set you up for success even in uncertain futures.
There are basically two ways that people try and develop strategy. There’s probably more, but for now let’s focus on two. Analogous thinking and first principle thinking.
Analogous thinking looks for solutions based on prior experience. It tries to shortcut the process by looking for analogies.
Analogous thinkers say, ‘This situation/problem/opportunity is a bit like that one we faced before so let’s do whatever we did then again'. They make assumptions based on other probably unconnected experiences. They think they already know the answer, and quite often will ignore evidence which fails to confirm their opinion. Something that psychologists call ‘conformation bias’.
Put bluntly, analogous thinking focusses on old opportunities and slavishly copies what has worked in the past. But we are, as we all know, in uncharted territory right now. We need fresh thinking and lots of it.
That’s where first principle thinking comes in. First principle thinking is much smarter. It looks at every problem, every scenario, every opportunity with fresh eyes.
First principles thinking is basically the practice of actively questioning every assumption you think you 'know' about a given problem or scenario — and then creating new knowledge and solutions from scratch.
Breaking them down to their individual ‘first principles’. Boiling down each problem and scenario to its most basic level.
It means that you come up with unique solutions and strategies which solve the problem at its core. Not based on something else that it happens to look a little bit like.
First principle thinking will lead you to, ‘In this uncertain future, what need could we satisfy, what problem could we solve, most importantly, what value could we add to our customers.’ Relentlessly focussed on something that you are good at, or could be good at, but always starting with whether it will be valuable.
No surprises that down this road lies innovation and breakthrough.
There’s another bonus to this way of approaching things. It leads to a clear logic behind the choices that you are going to make. To the strategies that will guide you. And clear logic is easy to communicate, both internally and externally. So, understanding and engagement should be a no brainer.
This is the fun bit. Set aside a small budget. You don’t need much cash for this, you just need a bunch of smart, curious people. It doesn’t matter what department, function or job title they have.
What matters is how they think. And that you give them the permission and space to do it. Form them into small, autonomous groups, and set them running lots and lots of innovation experiments.
Get them to spin multiple scenarios of what might happen next to your business. What scenarios, problems or opportunities you might face. If you’ve picked the right people, there’s going to be lots.
Then apply first principle thinking. Develop as many unique strategies that address each scenario at its most basic level as you can. Each one should lead directly to you coming out of this in a position to deliver the value that your customers will need.
The more you can develop, the more likely you are to have the right one to hand when you need to push the button.
Turns out that uncertainty can be planned for.
Developing multiple strategies for recovery is just one facet of driving the next stage of growth for businesses post pandemic.
At UNIT_ we have developed the Post Covid-19 Business Growth programme designed to help you strengthen your internal culture, protect productivity and recover faster.